Blog

Explainers written from SteamWatch's own Pinnacle price data.

• Favourite-Longshot Bias in Football: The Data
  2026-09-02 Backing every favourite, underdog and draw at Pinnacle closing prices over 8,867 top-five-league matches since 2021/22. Favourites level, dogs -10.5%.
• What Is Closing Line Value (CLV) in Football Betting?
  2026-08-15 What closing line value is, how to calculate it in implied probability, why beating the close predicts long-term profit, and how to track it.
• What Is a Drifter in Football Betting?
  2026-08-15 What it means when football odds drift, why prices lengthen before kickoff, how drift relates to steam, and what the data says about backing drifters.
• How to Read Closing Lines in Football Betting
  2026-08-15 How to read closing lines: convert odds to implied probability, compare opening and closing prices, and know which markets to trust.
• What Are Steam Moves in Football Betting?
  2026-03-16 Steam moves explained: what they are, how to spot them, why they matter for football bettors, and how to use sharp money signals in your betting process.