Dropping Odds Today

50 fixtures with a shortening price · rebuilt 00:51 UTC, 30 Sep 2026 · Pinnacle prices via The Odds API

Dropping odds are prices that have shortened since they opened. The table below lists the upcoming fixtures whose Pinnacle price has dropped most over the last 48 hours, with the opening price, the current price and the change in implied probability.

How SteamWatch measures a drop

SteamWatch records Pinnacle's 1X2, Asian handicap and totals prices every 15 minutes, and more often close to kickoff. For each upcoming match it compares the current price with the price 48 hours earlier, or with the opening price for matches listed more recently, and shows the selection that shortened most across the 1X2 and totals markets. The change is given in implied-probability points: 100 divided by the price, now minus then. A move from 2.00 to 1.80 is a drop of 5.6 points.

Steamers and drifters

SteamWatch logs a drop of 3 percentage points or more before kickoff as a steamer and follows it to the result on Steam Results. The opposite move, a price that lengthens, is a drifter, and those are tracked on Drifters. So far in 2026/27 SteamWatch has logged 121 steam moves: 45.5% won, and backing every one with 1 unit at the post-move price returned -6.2%.

Background: what steam moves are, what a drifter is and how to read closing lines.

Biggest drops in the last 48 hours

KickoffMatchCompetitionSelectionFromNowImplied change
2 Oct 18:45 UTCFrance v ItalyUEFA Nations LeagueO 3.0 (Totals)2.061.81+6.7pp
1 Oct 18:45 UTCGreece v NetherlandsUEFA Nations LeagueO 2.75 (Totals)2.011.87+3.7pp
17 Oct 13:30 UTCElversberg v AugsburgBundesligaAugsburg (1X2)2.862.63+3.1pp
14 Oct 16:45 UTCFeyenoord v ComoChampions LeagueComo (1X2)1.931.83+2.8pp
17 Oct 13:30 UTCWerder Bremen v SC PaderbornBundesligaO 3.0 (Totals)1.951.85+2.8pp
16 Oct 18:45 UTCFrosinone v SassuoloSerie AO 3.0 (Totals)1.981.88+2.7pp
17 Oct 16:30 UTCNewcastle United v Aston VillaEnglish Premier LeagueO 3.0 (Totals)2.031.93+2.6pp
4 Oct 18:45 UTCWales v DenmarkUEFA Nations LeagueDenmark (1X2)1.931.84+2.5pp
10 Oct 14:15 UTCAlavés v Atlético MadridLa LigaAtlético Madrid (1X2)1.931.84+2.5pp
1 Oct 18:45 UTCWales v NorwayUEFA Nations LeagueO 3.0 (Totals)1.991.90+2.4pp
17 Oct 13:30 UTCFC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05BundesligaO 3.0 (Totals)2.021.93+2.3pp
15 Oct 16:45 UTCPanathinaikos FC v FK Borac Banja LukaConference LeagueO 3.0 (Totals)1.931.85+2.2pp
17 Oct 13:00 UTCVenezia v NapoliSerie AO 2.75 (Totals)1.931.85+2.2pp
15 Oct 19:00 UTCAtalanta BC v Pafos FCConference LeaguePafos FC (1X2)6.465.65+2.2pp
17 Oct 14:00 UTCFulham v Hull CityEnglish Premier LeagueU 2.75 (Totals)1.951.87+2.2pp
10 Oct 14:00 UTCPreston North End v MillwallEFL ChampionshipMillwall (1X2)2.612.47+2.2pp
1 Oct 16:00 UTCAzerbaijan v LiechtensteinUEFA Nations LeagueAzerbaijan (1X2)1.211.18+2.1pp
11 Oct 18:45 UTCTroyes v MarseilleLigue 1Marseille (1X2)1.901.83+2.0pp
1 Oct 18:45 UTCGermany v SerbiaUEFA Nations LeagueDraw (1X2)6.866.04+2.0pp
11 Oct 13:00 UTCLazio v MonzaSerie ALazio (1X2)1.621.57+2.0pp
15 Oct 19:00 UTCSC Freiburg v FK JablonecConference LeagueFK Jablonec (1X2)8.056.96+1.9pp
19 Oct 16:30 UTCMonza v CagliariSerie AMonza (1X2)2.242.15+1.9pp
13 Oct 19:00 UTCVillarreal v NapoliChampions LeagueNapoli (1X2)3.173.00+1.8pp
1 Oct 18:45 UTCIsrael v KosovoUEFA Nations LeagueKosovo (1X2)2.442.34+1.8pp
17 Oct 11:30 UTCEverton v ChelseaEnglish Premier LeagueEverton (1X2)2.842.71+1.7pp
10 Oct 13:30 UTCUnion Berlin v ElversbergBundesligaO 3.0 (Totals)1.961.90+1.6pp
17 Oct 15:15 UTCStrasbourg v Paris Saint GermainLigue 1Paris Saint Germain (1X2)1.431.40+1.5pp
14 Oct 16:45 UTCLASK v LiverpoolChampions LeagueLASK (1X2)9.648.45+1.5pp
11 Oct 16:00 UTCSassuolo v AC MilanSerie AAC Milan (1X2)1.881.83+1.5pp
2 Oct 16:00 UTCLatvia v MontenegroUEFA Nations LeagueMontenegro (1X2)1.931.88+1.4pp
10 Oct 13:30 UTCFSV Mainz 05 v Bayer LeverkusenBundesligaO 3.25 (Totals)1.961.91+1.3pp
10 Oct 18:45 UTCParis Saint Germain v Le Mans FCLigue 1O 4.0 (Totals)1.841.80+1.2pp
4 Oct 18:45 UTCPortugal v NorwayUEFA Nations LeagueNorway (1X2)4.204.00+1.2pp
11 Oct 19:00 UTCReal Racing Club de Santander v ValenciaLa LigaO 2.75 (Totals)1.931.89+1.1pp
10 Oct 14:00 UTCDerby County v Wrexham AFCEFL ChampionshipWrexham AFC (1X2)2.672.60+1.0pp
2 Oct 18:45 UTCHungary v GeorgiaUEFA Nations LeagueGeorgia (1X2)3.953.80+1.0pp
11 Oct 15:30 UTCSC Freiburg v FC Schalke 04BundesligaFC Schalke 04 (1X2)5.605.32+0.9pp
11 Oct 15:15 UTCRennes v AuxerreLigue 1Auxerre (1X2)6.676.30+0.9pp
1 Oct 18:45 UTCRepublic of Ireland v AustriaUEFA Nations LeagueDraw (1X2)3.453.35+0.9pp
10 Oct 11:30 UTCWest Bromwich Albion v Birmingham CityEFL ChampionshipBirmingham City (1X2)3.022.95+0.8pp
13 Oct 19:00 UTCInter Milan v Club BruggeChampions LeagueClub Brugge (1X2)10.139.43+0.7pp
12 Oct 18:45 UTCTorino v UdineseSerie ATorino (1X2)2.392.35+0.7pp
15 Oct 16:45 UTCMjällby AIF v Inter Club d'EscaldesConference LeagueInter Club d'Escaldes (1X2)8.638.16+0.7pp
4 Oct 18:45 UTCRepublic of Ireland v IsraelUEFA Nations LeagueIsrael (1X2)2.562.52+0.6pp
10 Oct 14:00 UTCSunderland v Brighton and Hove AlbionEnglish Premier LeagueSunderland (1X2)2.922.87+0.6pp
17 Oct 18:45 UTCAS Roma v GenoaSerie ADraw (1X2)5.765.57+0.6pp
17 Oct 13:30 UTCUnion Berlin v Borussia DortmundBundesligaDraw (1X2)4.324.23+0.5pp
13 Oct 19:00 UTCViking FK v Bayern MunichChampions LeagueViking FK (1X2)15.6314.62+0.4pp
10 Oct 18:45 UTCNapoli v FrosinoneSerie AFrosinone (1X2)6.416.27+0.3pp
11 Oct 18:45 UTCCagliari v JuventusSerie ACagliari (1X2)6.356.23+0.3pp

From is the opening price, or the price 48 hours ago for matches listed earlier than that.

Implied change is in percentage points, largest first; positive means the price shortened. Each match links to its full open-to-kickoff price history.

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