Dropping Odds Today
Dropping odds are prices that have shortened since they opened. The table below lists the upcoming fixtures whose Pinnacle price has dropped most over the last 48 hours, with the opening price, the current price and the change in implied probability.
How SteamWatch measures a drop
SteamWatch records Pinnacle's 1X2, Asian handicap and totals prices every 15 minutes, and more often close to kickoff. For each upcoming match it compares the current price with the price 48 hours earlier, or with the opening price for matches listed more recently, and shows the selection that shortened most across the 1X2 and totals markets. The change is given in implied-probability points: 100 divided by the price, now minus then. A move from 2.00 to 1.80 is a drop of 5.6 points.
Steamers and drifters
SteamWatch logs a drop of 3 percentage points or more before kickoff as a steamer and follows it to the result on Steam Results. The opposite move, a price that lengthens, is a drifter, and those are tracked on Drifters. So far in 2026/27 SteamWatch has logged 121 steam moves: 45.5% won, and backing every one with 1 unit at the post-move price returned -6.2%.
Background: what steam moves are, what a drifter is and how to read closing lines.
Biggest drops in the last 48 hours
| Kickoff | Match | Competition | Selection | From | Now | Implied change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 18:45 UTC | France v Italy | UEFA Nations League | O 3.0 | 2.06 | 1.81 | +6.7pp |
| 1 Oct 18:45 UTC | Greece v Netherlands | UEFA Nations League | O 2.75 | 2.01 | 1.87 | +3.7pp |
| 17 Oct 13:30 UTC | Elversberg v Augsburg | Bundesliga | Augsburg | 2.86 | 2.63 | +3.1pp |
| 14 Oct 16:45 UTC | Feyenoord v Como | Champions League | Como | 1.93 | 1.83 | +2.8pp |
| 17 Oct 13:30 UTC | Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn | Bundesliga | O 3.0 | 1.95 | 1.85 | +2.8pp |
| 16 Oct 18:45 UTC | Frosinone v Sassuolo | Serie A | O 3.0 | 1.98 | 1.88 | +2.7pp |
| 17 Oct 16:30 UTC | Newcastle United v Aston Villa | English Premier League | O 3.0 | 2.03 | 1.93 | +2.6pp |
| 4 Oct 18:45 UTC | Wales v Denmark | UEFA Nations League | Denmark | 1.93 | 1.84 | +2.5pp |
| 10 Oct 14:15 UTC | Alavés v Atlético Madrid | La Liga | Atlético Madrid | 1.93 | 1.84 | +2.5pp |
| 1 Oct 18:45 UTC | Wales v Norway | UEFA Nations League | O 3.0 | 1.99 | 1.90 | +2.4pp |
| 17 Oct 13:30 UTC | FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga | O 3.0 | 2.02 | 1.93 | +2.3pp |
| 15 Oct 16:45 UTC | Panathinaikos FC v FK Borac Banja Luka | Conference League | O 3.0 | 1.93 | 1.85 | +2.2pp |
| 17 Oct 13:00 UTC | Venezia v Napoli | Serie A | O 2.75 | 1.93 | 1.85 | +2.2pp |
| 15 Oct 19:00 UTC | Atalanta BC v Pafos FC | Conference League | Pafos FC | 6.46 | 5.65 | +2.2pp |
| 17 Oct 14:00 UTC | Fulham v Hull City | English Premier League | U 2.75 | 1.95 | 1.87 | +2.2pp |
| 10 Oct 14:00 UTC | Preston North End v Millwall | EFL Championship | Millwall | 2.61 | 2.47 | +2.2pp |
| 1 Oct 16:00 UTC | Azerbaijan v Liechtenstein | UEFA Nations League | Azerbaijan | 1.21 | 1.18 | +2.1pp |
| 11 Oct 18:45 UTC | Troyes v Marseille | Ligue 1 | Marseille | 1.90 | 1.83 | +2.0pp |
| 1 Oct 18:45 UTC | Germany v Serbia | UEFA Nations League | Draw | 6.86 | 6.04 | +2.0pp |
| 11 Oct 13:00 UTC | Lazio v Monza | Serie A | Lazio | 1.62 | 1.57 | +2.0pp |
| 15 Oct 19:00 UTC | SC Freiburg v FK Jablonec | Conference League | FK Jablonec | 8.05 | 6.96 | +1.9pp |
| 19 Oct 16:30 UTC | Monza v Cagliari | Serie A | Monza | 2.24 | 2.15 | +1.9pp |
| 13 Oct 19:00 UTC | Villarreal v Napoli | Champions League | Napoli | 3.17 | 3.00 | +1.8pp |
| 1 Oct 18:45 UTC | Israel v Kosovo | UEFA Nations League | Kosovo | 2.44 | 2.34 | +1.8pp |
| 17 Oct 11:30 UTC | Everton v Chelsea | English Premier League | Everton | 2.84 | 2.71 | +1.7pp |
| 10 Oct 13:30 UTC | Union Berlin v Elversberg | Bundesliga | O 3.0 | 1.96 | 1.90 | +1.6pp |
| 17 Oct 15:15 UTC | Strasbourg v Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 1.43 | 1.40 | +1.5pp |
| 14 Oct 16:45 UTC | LASK v Liverpool | Champions League | LASK | 9.64 | 8.45 | +1.5pp |
| 11 Oct 16:00 UTC | Sassuolo v AC Milan | Serie A | AC Milan | 1.88 | 1.83 | +1.5pp |
| 2 Oct 16:00 UTC | Latvia v Montenegro | UEFA Nations League | Montenegro | 1.93 | 1.88 | +1.4pp |
| 10 Oct 13:30 UTC | FSV Mainz 05 v Bayer Leverkusen | Bundesliga | O 3.25 | 1.96 | 1.91 | +1.3pp |
| 10 Oct 18:45 UTC | Paris Saint Germain v Le Mans FC | Ligue 1 | O 4.0 | 1.84 | 1.80 | +1.2pp |
| 4 Oct 18:45 UTC | Portugal v Norway | UEFA Nations League | Norway | 4.20 | 4.00 | +1.2pp |
| 11 Oct 19:00 UTC | Real Racing Club de Santander v Valencia | La Liga | O 2.75 | 1.93 | 1.89 | +1.1pp |
| 10 Oct 14:00 UTC | Derby County v Wrexham AFC | EFL Championship | Wrexham AFC | 2.67 | 2.60 | +1.0pp |
| 2 Oct 18:45 UTC | Hungary v Georgia | UEFA Nations League | Georgia | 3.95 | 3.80 | +1.0pp |
| 11 Oct 15:30 UTC | SC Freiburg v FC Schalke 04 | Bundesliga | FC Schalke 04 | 5.60 | 5.32 | +0.9pp |
| 11 Oct 15:15 UTC | Rennes v Auxerre | Ligue 1 | Auxerre | 6.67 | 6.30 | +0.9pp |
| 1 Oct 18:45 UTC | Republic of Ireland v Austria | UEFA Nations League | Draw | 3.45 | 3.35 | +0.9pp |
| 10 Oct 11:30 UTC | West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City | EFL Championship | Birmingham City | 3.02 | 2.95 | +0.8pp |
| 13 Oct 19:00 UTC | Inter Milan v Club Brugge | Champions League | Club Brugge | 10.13 | 9.43 | +0.7pp |
| 12 Oct 18:45 UTC | Torino v Udinese | Serie A | Torino | 2.39 | 2.35 | +0.7pp |
| 15 Oct 16:45 UTC | Mjällby AIF v Inter Club d'Escaldes | Conference League | Inter Club d'Escaldes | 8.63 | 8.16 | +0.7pp |
| 4 Oct 18:45 UTC | Republic of Ireland v Israel | UEFA Nations League | Israel | 2.56 | 2.52 | +0.6pp |
| 10 Oct 14:00 UTC | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | English Premier League | Sunderland | 2.92 | 2.87 | +0.6pp |
| 17 Oct 18:45 UTC | AS Roma v Genoa | Serie A | Draw | 5.76 | 5.57 | +0.6pp |
| 17 Oct 13:30 UTC | Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | Draw | 4.32 | 4.23 | +0.5pp |
| 13 Oct 19:00 UTC | Viking FK v Bayern Munich | Champions League | Viking FK | 15.63 | 14.62 | +0.4pp |
| 10 Oct 18:45 UTC | Napoli v Frosinone | Serie A | Frosinone | 6.41 | 6.27 | +0.3pp |
| 11 Oct 18:45 UTC | Cagliari v Juventus | Serie A | Cagliari | 6.35 | 6.23 | +0.3pp |