The Justice Table

Each of Europe's top five league tables rebuilt on expected points over the last 12 months. A club's expected points are what its chances, and its opponents' chances, were worth match by match; the table sorts on them, with the rank on real points alongside. Gap is points minus expected points: positive means results have been kinder than the play. Biggest gaps: Rennes (+14.7, Ligue 1), Barcelona (+14.4, La Liga), Lazio (+13.3, Serie A). Furthest behind: Tottenham (-18.4, Premier League), Athletic Club (-13.9, La Liga), Osasuna (-13.6, La Liga).

Matches from 19 Oct 2025 to 11 Oct 2026 · clubs with 8+ matches · Understat data · updated 12 Oct 2026

Premier League justice table, last 12 months

17 clubs, 35 to 37 matches played. Above their expected points: Aston Villa (+11.8), Manchester City (+10.1), Arsenal (+6.1). Below: Tottenham (-18.4), Bournemouth (-12.0), Chelsea (-6.1).

xPos	Club	Pos	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts	xPts	Gap
1	Arsenal	1	36	25	6	5	66	29	81	74.9	+6.1
2	Manchester City	2	36	24	8	4	76	34	80	69.9	+10.1
3	Manchester United	3	37	18	13	6	69	48	67	61.5	+5.5
4	Liverpool	7	37	14	12	11	57	51	54	58.8	-4.8
5	Brentford	5	37	14	14	9	58	46	56	57.5	-1.5
6	Bournemouth	13	36	9	18	9	51	56	45	57.0	-12.0
7	Brighton	6	36	15	9	12	58	40	54	54.5	-0.5
8	Chelsea	9	36	13	9	14	57	56	48	54.1	-6.1
9	Leeds	8	36	11	15	10	50	48	48	51.8	-3.8
10	Aston Villa	4	37	18	7	12	56	53	61	49.2	+11.8
11	Tottenham	17	37	6	12	19	38	61	30	48.4	-18.4
12	Nottingham Forest	14	36	11	11	14	48	44	44	46.9	-2.9
13	Everton	10	36	12	12	12	46	46	48	45.8	+2.2
14	Newcastle United	11	35	14	6	15	55	57	48	45.4	+2.6
15	Crystal Palace	16	36	10	9	17	38	55	39	44.2	-5.2
16	Fulham	12	36	13	7	16	45	49	46	43.5	+2.4
17	Sunderland	15	36	11	11	14	39	54	44	40.5	+3.5

La Liga justice table, last 12 months

20 clubs, 8 to 38 matches played. Above their expected points: Barcelona (+14.4), Atletico Madrid (+12.9), Getafe (+8.0). Below: Athletic Club (-13.9), Osasuna (-13.6), Alaves (-10.0).

xPos	Club	Pos	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts	xPts	Gap
1	Barcelona	1	37	32	0	5	105	33	96	81.6	+14.4
2	Real Madrid	2	38	26	5	7	77	34	83	78.0	+5.0
3	Villarreal	4	37	19	6	12	69	49	63	61.8	+1.2
4	Atletico Madrid	3	37	23	3	11	64	42	72	59.1	+12.9
5	Real Betis	5	37	17	12	8	58	47	63	57.5	+5.5
6	Athletic Club	14	36	11	7	18	41	55	40	53.9	-13.9
7	Osasuna	13	37	10	10	17	45	59	40	53.6	-13.6
8	Rayo Vallecano	8	37	12	14	11	44	50	50	53.3	-3.3
9	Real Sociedad	7	38	14	12	12	64	64	54	53.2	+0.8
10	Alaves	11	38	11	10	17	47	56	43	53.0	-10.0
11	Celta Vigo	6	38	15	11	12	54	44	56	50.4	+5.6
12	Valencia	10	38	12	10	16	42	56	46	49.3	-3.3
13	Levante	16	36	10	9	17	42	59	39	43.8	-4.8
14	Espanyol	15	37	10	9	18	41	55	39	40.0	-1.0
15	Elche	17	38	8	12	18	49	65	36	40.0	-4.0
16	Getafe	9	38	14	6	18	27	37	48	40.0	+8.0
17	Sevilla	12	36	12	7	17	40	55	43	38.7	+4.3
18	Deportivo La Coruna	18	8	2	4	2	12	11	10	9.9	+0.1
19	Racing Santander	19	8	2	2	4	13	23	8	9.1	-1.1
20	Malaga	20	8	0	4	4	4	13	4	6.1	-2.1

Bundesliga justice table, last 12 months

15 clubs, 32 to 33 matches played. Above their expected points: Borussia Dortmund (+11.5), Bayern Munich (+6.8), Augsburg (+5.6). Below: FC Cologne (-12.9), Union Berlin (-9.3), Mainz 05 (-8.9).

xPos	Club	Pos	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts	xPts	Gap
1	Bayern Munich	1	32	24	7	1	111	36	79	72.2	+6.8
2	Borussia Dortmund	2	32	22	6	4	68	32	72	60.5	+11.5
3	RasenBallsport Leipzig	3	32	18	4	10	71	43	58	59.8	-1.8
4	Bayer Leverkusen	5	32	16	7	9	66	44	55	57.5	-2.5
5	Hoffenheim	4	33	17	6	10	65	53	57	53.8	+3.2
6	Mainz 05	9	32	11	10	11	49	49	43	51.9	-8.9
7	VfB Stuttgart	6	32	15	8	9	68	52	53	49.8	+3.2
8	Freiburg	7	33	15	7	11	56	52	52	47.0	+5.0
9	Union Berlin	13	32	8	9	15	38	61	33	42.3	-9.3
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	10	33	9	13	11	53	65	40	42.2	-2.2
11	FC Cologne	15	32	6	10	16	45	63	28	40.9	-12.9
12	Augsburg	8	32	12	8	12	46	55	44	38.4	+5.6
13	Borussia M.Gladbach	12	32	9	8	15	43	56	35	36.4	-1.4
14	Werder Bremen	14	32	8	8	16	36	54	32	35.9	-3.9
15	Hamburger SV	11	32	9	9	14	38	59	36	32.1	+3.9

Serie A justice table, last 12 months

17 clubs, 36 to 38 matches played. Above their expected points: Lazio (+13.3), Parma Calcio 1913 (+11.4), Napoli (+9.6). Below: Juventus (-13.2), Fiorentina (-6.8), Genoa (-4.5).

xPos	Club	Pos	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts	xPts	Gap
1	Inter	1	37	27	7	3	89	35	88	81.7	+6.4
2	Juventus	6	38	19	11	8	61	34	68	81.2	-13.2
3	Como	2	38	21	10	7	67	30	73	70.8	+2.2
4	Roma	3	37	22	6	9	66	31	72	67.7	+4.3
5	AC Milan	5	38	19	12	7	55	37	69	62.6	+6.4
6	Napoli	4	37	21	8	8	56	35	71	61.4	+9.6
7	Atalanta	8	37	15	10	12	45	38	55	56.0	-1.0
8	Bologna	9	38	14	9	15	45	48	51	53.1	-2.1
9	Fiorentina	15	38	10	13	15	44	56	43	49.8	-6.8
10	Lazio	7	38	17	12	9	42	37	63	49.7	+13.3
11	Genoa	14	38	11	10	17	43	53	43	47.5	-4.5
12	Sassuolo	11	37	13	8	16	48	52	47	46.8	+0.2
13	Torino	16	36	11	8	17	43	58	41	44.5	-3.5
14	Udinese	12	37	13	7	17	47	50	46	43.8	+2.2
15	Cagliari	10	38	13	9	16	40	50	48	42.2	+5.8
16	Lecce	17	37	11	5	21	29	52	38	32.8	+5.2
17	Parma Calcio 1913	13	38	11	11	16	29	49	44	32.6	+11.4

Ligue 1 justice table, last 12 months

16 clubs, 32 to 33 matches played. Above their expected points: Rennes (+14.7), Lille (+9.7), Lyon (+7.7). Below: Toulouse (-9.8), Brest (-6.7), Nice (-6.3).

xPos	Club	Pos	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts	xPts	Gap
1	Paris Saint Germain	1	32	22	4	6	67	27	70	70.3	-0.3
2	Lens	2	33	20	4	9	67	39	64	64.7	-0.7
3	Lille	3	33	19	6	8	47	31	63	53.3	+9.7
4	Toulouse	11	33	10	11	12	45	45	41	50.8	-9.8
5	Lyon	5	32	16	8	8	53	36	56	48.3	+7.7
6	Marseille	7	32	14	5	13	51	46	47	48.2	-1.2
7	Monaco	6	32	16	6	10	53	46	54	47.5	+6.5
8	Rennes	4	33	19	5	9	60	48	62	47.3	+14.7
9	Paris FC	9	33	11	12	10	43	41	45	46.7	-1.7
10	Brest	12	33	10	9	14	44	53	39	45.7	-6.7
11	Strasbourg	10	32	12	8	12	52	49	44	42.9	+1.1
12	Lorient	8	33	11	13	9	45	41	46	42.5	+3.5
13	Auxerre	14	33	8	10	15	37	50	34	38.9	-4.8
14	Nice	16	32	6	11	15	30	53	29	35.3	-6.3
15	Le Havre	15	32	6	13	13	26	36	31	33.4	-2.4
16	Angers	13	32	10	7	15	32	46	37	31.3	+5.7

xPos is the rank on expected points over the window; Pos is the rank on real points over the same window. Gap is points minus expected points.

How it is measured

Expected points come from Understat, which turns the xG of both sides in a match into win, draw and loss probabilities and scores them 3, 1 and 0. A match a side would win 60% of the time and draw 20% of the time is worth 2.0 expected points. Summed over the season they give the points a club's chances, and its opponents' chances, deserved. The window is a rolling 12 months of league matches, or 6 on the toggle, so it spans the end of last season and the start of this one; a club needs 8 matches in the window and a place in the division this season to appear. Each table is sorted on expected points, the justice order. Pos is the club's rank on real points over the same window, not its league position. Gap is points minus expected points. Data covers the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1 and refreshes every Monday; expected points count penalties, as xG does.

What the table means

The name comes from the clubs in Christoph Biermann's Football Hackers, Midtjylland and Brentford among them, which judged themselves on expected points because the real table lies for long stretches. It still does. In 2025/26, the average club finished 2.1 places from its expected-points position, 64 of 96 finished within two places of it, and the largest points gap was Pisa at -21.1. Read a large positive gap as results running ahead of the play, and a large negative one as the reverse. Whether the market has priced that in is a separate question; the closing prices for every match are in Closing Lines.

Questions

What is a justice table?

A league table sorted on expected points instead of points. It shows where each club would sit if its results matched the quality of the chances it created and allowed, with its real position alongside.

What are expected points (xPts)?

The points a club was likely to take from a match given the xG of both sides: the win, draw and loss probabilities scored 3, 1 and 0 and added up. Over a season they show what the play was worth, separate from what the results delivered.

Which teams are overachieving their expected points right now?

As of matches to 11 Oct 2026, the clubs furthest above their expected points over the last 12 months across the top five leagues are Rennes (+14.7, Ligue 1), Barcelona (+14.4, La Liga), Lazio (+13.3, Serie A). Their results have run ahead of their play.

Which teams are underachieving their expected points?

As of matches to 11 Oct 2026, the clubs furthest below their expected points over the last 12 months are Tottenham (-18.4, Premier League), Athletic Club (-13.9, La Liga), Osasuna (-13.6, La Liga). Their play has been worth more than their results.

Why a rolling 12 months rather than the league table?

Five or six matches into a season the gaps are mostly noise. Twelve months of league matches, about 34 to 38 per club, is enough for expected points to mean something, and the window moves on every week. A 6-month view is on the toggle.

How often is the justice table updated?

Every Monday at 03:30 UTC from Understat, covering the current and previous season so the 12-month window is always complete.