Teams underperforming their expected goals across Europe's top five leagues, and the teams running hot above theirs. Gap is goals scored minus xG over the last 12 months: the more negative, the more chances have gone unrewarded. Furthest below their xG: Mainz 05 (-17.8, Bundesliga), Atalanta (-17.3, Serie A), Juventus (-16.8, Serie A).
Matches from 19 Oct 2025 to 11 Oct 2026 · 85 clubs with 8+ matches · Understat data · updated 12 Oct 2026
Teams underperforming xG: furthest below, all five leagues
#
Club
League
P
Goals
xG
Gap
Per match
Def gap
1
Mainz 05
Bundesliga
32
49
66.8
-17.8
-0.56
-8.9
2
Atalanta
Serie A
37
45
62.3
-17.3
-0.47
-18.0
3
Juventus
Serie A
38
61
77.8
-16.8
-0.44
+1.5
4
Crystal Palace
Premier League
36
38
53.2
-15.2
-0.42
-6.8
5
Athletic Club
La Liga
36
41
54.8
-13.8
-0.38
+7.3
6
Bournemouth
Premier League
36
51
64.7
-13.7
-0.38
+2.0
7
Rayo Vallecano
La Liga
37
44
57.0
-13.0
-0.35
-5.6
8
Levante
La Liga
36
42
54.4
-12.4
-0.34
-6.7
9
AC Milan
Serie A
38
55
66.8
-11.8
-0.31
-12.2
10
Nice
Ligue 1
32
30
41.2
-11.2
-0.35
-3.7
Teams overperforming xG: furthest above, all five leagues
Furthest above their xG: Bayern Munich (+10.1, Bundesliga), Real Sociedad (+5.3, La Liga), Freiburg (+4.8, Bundesliga). The same logic applies in reverse: goals usually fall back towards the chances created.
#
Club
League
P
Goals
xG
Gap
Per match
Def gap
1
Bayern Munich
Bundesliga
32
111
100.9
+10.1
+0.32
-8.7
2
Real Sociedad
La Liga
38
64
58.7
+5.3
+0.14
+1.7
3
Freiburg
Bundesliga
33
56
51.2
+4.8
+0.15
+1.7
4
Strasbourg
Ligue 1
32
52
48.2
+3.8
+0.12
+0.6
5
Celta Vigo
La Liga
38
54
50.4
+3.6
+0.09
-10.9
6
Sevilla
La Liga
36
40
36.9
+3.1
+0.09
-0.4
7
Eintracht Frankfurt
Bundesliga
33
53
50.0
+3.0
+0.09
+6.6
8
Lyon
Ligue 1
32
53
50.1
+2.9
+0.09
-8.9
9
Rennes
Ligue 1
33
60
57.3
+2.7
+0.08
-8.6
10
Hoffenheim
Bundesliga
33
65
63.0
+2.0
+0.06
+0.3
Premier League teams underperforming and overperforming xG
17 Premier League clubs with 8+ matches in the window. Furthest below their xG: Crystal Palace (-15.2, Premier League), Bournemouth (-13.7, Premier League), Brentford (-10.7, Premier League). Furthest above their xG: Aston Villa (-0.1, Premier League), Newcastle United (-0.3, Premier League), Manchester City (-0.4, Premier League).
Below xG
#
Club
P
Goals
xG
Gap
Per match
Def gap
1
Crystal Palace
36
38
53.2
-15.2
-0.42
-6.8
2
Bournemouth
36
51
64.7
-13.7
-0.38
+2.0
3
Brentford
37
58
68.7
-10.7
-0.29
-12.5
4
Chelsea
36
57
67.7
-10.7
-0.30
-2.2
5
Tottenham
37
38
47.0
-9.0
-0.24
+4.3
Above xG
#
Club
P
Goals
xG
Gap
Per match
Def gap
1
Aston Villa
37
56
56.1
-0.1
-0.00
-6.4
2
Newcastle United
35
55
55.3
-0.3
-0.01
-3.8
3
Manchester City
36
76
76.4
-0.4
-0.01
-12.2
4
Manchester United
37
69
69.7
-0.7
-0.02
-1.2
5
Brighton
36
58
60.5
-2.5
-0.07
-12.1
La Liga teams underperforming and overperforming xG
20 La Liga clubs with 8+ matches in the window. Furthest below their xG: Athletic Club (-13.8, La Liga), Rayo Vallecano (-13.0, La Liga), Levante (-12.4, La Liga). Furthest above their xG: Real Sociedad (+5.3, La Liga), Celta Vigo (+3.6, La Liga), Sevilla (+3.1, La Liga).
Below xG
#
Club
P
Goals
xG
Gap
Per match
Def gap
1
Athletic Club
36
41
54.8
-13.8
-0.38
+7.3
2
Rayo Vallecano
37
44
57.0
-13.0
-0.35
-5.6
3
Levante
36
42
54.4
-12.4
-0.34
-6.7
4
Alaves
38
47
55.6
-8.6
-0.23
+1.3
5
Valencia
38
42
50.6
-8.6
-0.23
-1.4
Above xG
#
Club
P
Goals
xG
Gap
Per match
Def gap
1
Real Sociedad
38
64
58.7
+5.3
+0.14
+1.7
2
Celta Vigo
38
54
50.4
+3.6
+0.09
-10.9
3
Sevilla
36
40
36.9
+3.1
+0.09
-0.4
4
Racing Santander
8
13
11.2
+1.8
+0.22
+5.3
5
Deportivo La Coruna
8
12
10.7
+1.3
+0.16
-0.8
Bundesliga teams underperforming and overperforming xG
15 Bundesliga clubs with 8+ matches in the window. Furthest below their xG: Mainz 05 (-17.8, Bundesliga), FC Cologne (-9.8, Bundesliga), Augsburg (-8.7, Bundesliga). Furthest above their xG: Bayern Munich (+10.1, Bundesliga), Freiburg (+4.8, Bundesliga), Eintracht Frankfurt (+3.0, Bundesliga).
Below xG
#
Club
P
Goals
xG
Gap
Per match
Def gap
1
Mainz 05
32
49
66.8
-17.8
-0.56
-8.9
2
FC Cologne
32
45
54.8
-9.8
-0.31
+4.0
3
Augsburg
32
46
54.7
-8.7
-0.27
-9.9
4
Bayer Leverkusen
32
66
71.6
-5.6
-0.17
-4.0
5
Union Berlin
32
38
43.5
-5.5
-0.17
+5.6
Above xG
#
Club
P
Goals
xG
Gap
Per match
Def gap
1
Bayern Munich
32
111
100.9
+10.1
+0.32
-8.7
2
Freiburg
33
56
51.2
+4.8
+0.15
+1.7
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
33
53
50.0
+3.0
+0.09
+6.6
4
Hoffenheim
33
65
63.0
+2.0
+0.06
+0.3
5
VfB Stuttgart
32
68
67.2
+0.8
+0.02
-8.9
Serie A teams underperforming and overperforming xG
17 Serie A clubs with 8+ matches in the window. Furthest below their xG: Atalanta (-17.3, Serie A), Juventus (-16.8, Serie A), AC Milan (-11.8, Serie A). Furthest above their xG: Inter (+1.5, Serie A), Udinese (+1.1, Serie A), Napoli (-0.3, Serie A).
Below xG
#
Club
P
Goals
xG
Gap
Per match
Def gap
1
Atalanta
37
45
62.3
-17.3
-0.47
-18.0
2
Juventus
38
61
77.8
-16.8
-0.44
+1.5
3
AC Milan
38
55
66.8
-11.8
-0.31
-12.2
4
Fiorentina
38
44
54.5
-10.5
-0.28
-2.4
5
Lecce
37
29
38.6
-9.6
-0.26
-18.6
Above xG
#
Club
P
Goals
xG
Gap
Per match
Def gap
1
Inter
37
89
87.5
+1.5
+0.04
-1.8
2
Udinese
37
47
45.9
+1.1
+0.03
-9.1
3
Napoli
37
56
56.3
-0.3
-0.01
-5.6
4
Sassuolo
37
48
50.4
-2.4
-0.06
-7.4
5
Cagliari
38
40
42.6
-2.6
-0.07
-8.6
Ligue 1 teams underperforming and overperforming xG
16 Ligue 1 clubs with 8+ matches in the window. Furthest below their xG: Nice (-11.2, Ligue 1), Le Havre (-10.4, Ligue 1), Paris Saint Germain (-9.2, Ligue 1). Furthest above their xG: Strasbourg (+3.8, Ligue 1), Lyon (+2.9, Ligue 1), Rennes (+2.7, Ligue 1).
Below xG
#
Club
P
Goals
xG
Gap
Per match
Def gap
1
Nice
32
30
41.2
-11.2
-0.35
-3.7
2
Le Havre
32
26
36.4
-10.4
-0.32
-18.9
3
Paris Saint Germain
32
67
76.2
-9.2
-0.29
-5.7
4
Marseille
32
51
59.4
-8.4
-0.26
-8.9
5
Lens
33
67
73.7
-6.7
-0.20
-2.9
Above xG
#
Club
P
Goals
xG
Gap
Per match
Def gap
1
Strasbourg
32
52
48.2
+3.8
+0.12
+0.6
2
Lyon
32
53
50.1
+2.9
+0.09
-8.9
3
Rennes
33
60
57.3
+2.7
+0.08
-8.6
4
Lorient
33
45
44.5
+0.5
+0.01
-5.9
5
Monaco
32
53
52.9
+0.1
+0.00
-1.0
How it is measured
Match-level goals and xG come from Understat for the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1, refreshed every Monday. The window is a rolling 12 months of league matches, or 6 months on the toggle, so it spans the end of last season and the start of this one. A club needs at least 8 matches in the window, and a place in the division this season, to appear. xG here is total xG, including penalties, so it lines up with goals scored. Gap is goals minus xG; Def gap is goals conceded minus xGA, so a negative Def gap means a defence conceding less than the chances it allows.
What the gap means
Over a season, goals track xG closely, and a club well below its xG usually catches up in the end. When that happens is not something the numbers can say. Last season across the five leagues, a club's gap in its first five matches told you almost nothing about its gap in the remaining 33. Read the tables as a list of attacks creating more than they score, and of attacks scoring more than they create, and check the price before assuming the market has not noticed.
Questions
What does underperforming xG mean?
A team is underperforming its expected goals when it has scored fewer goals than the xG value of the chances it created. On this page the gap is goals minus xG over the window, and a negative gap is underperformance.
Which teams are underperforming their xG right now?
As of matches to 11 Oct 2026, the clubs furthest below their xG over the last 12 months in the top five leagues are Mainz 05 (-17.8), Atalanta (-17.3), Juventus (-16.8). The full top ten and a breakdown by league are on this page.
Which teams are overperforming their xG?
As of matches to 11 Oct 2026, the clubs furthest above their xG over the last 12 months are Bayern Munich (+10.1), Real Sociedad (+5.3), Freiburg (+4.8). Goals usually fall back towards chances created, so these are the regression candidates in the other direction.
Do teams that underperform xG catch up?
Usually, over a long enough run: goals track xG closely across a season. When the catch-up happens is not predictable. Across the five leagues last season, a club's goals-minus-xG gap in its first five matches had almost no relationship with its gap over the remaining 33.
Does the gap include penalties?
Yes. xG here is total xG including penalty xG, so it compares like with like against goals scored. Non-penalty figures per club are on the Rolling xG page.
How often is this page updated?
Every Monday at 03:30 UTC from Understat, covering the current and previous season, so the 12-month window is always complete.
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