SteamWatchLongshot Bias | SteamWatch
What blindly backing every favourite, underdog or draw at Pinnacle closing prices would have returned. 8,867 matches across the Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga, Serie A and Ligue 1, 2021/22 to August 2026, flat 1 unit stakes, updated weekly.
Headline numbers (all five leagues)
- Every favourite: +0.2% yield. Super Fav (1.06 to 1.70) -1.2%, Mid Fav (1.70 to 2.19) -1.8%, Slight Fav (2.19 to 3.09) +3.7%.
- Every underdog: -10.5% yield. Slight Dog (2.58 to 3.62) -9.6%, Mid Dog (3.62 to 5.30) -8.0%, Super Dog (5.30 to 36.00) -14.0%.
- Every draw: -2.0% yield at a median price of 3.71.
- Favourite playing at home (5,801 matches): -1.4%. Favourite playing away (3,066 matches): +3.2%.
By league
- Premier League: favourites -0.5%, underdogs -9.3%, draws -2.5%.
- La Liga: favourites +3.8%, underdogs -14.6%, draws -5.8%.
- Bundesliga: favourites -1.1%, underdogs -6.9%, draws +1.1%.
- Serie A: favourites +0.7%, underdogs -15.6%, draws +0.4%.
- Ligue 1: favourites -2.6%, underdogs -4.4%, draws -2.7%.
Per team
Every club in the Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and Ligue 1 can be pulled up on its own: record, win rate, median close and flat-stake ROI backing or fading them, split by matches where they were the favourite and matches where they were the underdog, with a match-by-match cumulative chart. Example: Aston Villa, all time, +25.9% backing overall.
Odds bands are terciles of the filtered data (equal match counts per band). The favourite is whichever side closed shorter. Backing the favourite or the underdog loses on a draw. Prices are football-data.co.uk's Pinnacle closes to January 2026 and SteamWatch's own Pinnacle closing-line capture from February 2026, with the Betfair Exchange close standing in for the roughly 200 matches between the two. Premier League 25/26 and the live 26/27 season are free to explore; every league and season is available with SteamWatch Pro.