Question 1

Are football favourites profitable to bet on?

Accepted Answer

Blindly backing every favourite at Pinnacle closing prices across 8,867 top-five-league matches (2021/22 to August 2026) returned +0.2%, near enough level, so favourites as a group are a break-even bet at the close. Slight favourites (2.19 to 3.09) returned +3.7%, and favourites playing away returned +3.2%.

Question 2

Why do underdogs lose money in football betting?

Accepted Answer

Underdogs are systematically overpriced by the market, which is the favourite-longshot bias. Blindly backing every underdog at Pinnacle closing prices lost 10.5% across 8,867 matches, and the biggest underdogs (5.30 and above) lost 14.0%. The price has to be wrong by more than that margin before a dog bet is even level.

Question 3

What is the favourite-longshot bias?

Accepted Answer

The tendency for betting markets to price longshots too short and favourites too long relative to how often each actually wins. In football at Pinnacle closing prices it shows up as favourites returning roughly zero and underdogs returning around minus 10% when backed blindly.

Question 4

Is backing the draw profitable in football?

Accepted Answer

Blindly backing the draw in every match at Pinnacle closing prices returned -2.0% across 8,867 top-five-league matches, so it sits between favourites and underdogs. The Bundesliga (+1.1%) and Serie A (+0.4%) were the only leagues where the draw came out ahead.