In-Play Jumps

Where the market went in the first five minutes after kickoff. For every tracked match SteamWatch records the Pinnacle closing 1X2 price and the first Polymarket price once in-play trading opens, then reports the gap between them in implied-probability percentage points.

What the table shows

• The Pinnacle close for the side in question, as an implied probability.
• The Polymarket price at roughly T+5 minutes, as an implied probability.
• The gap in percentage points. A large positive gap means the in-play market priced the side higher than the close; a large negative gap means lower.

The page reports observed prices only. It does not claim to know why a price moved. Match-level price histories are on each match page; the closing-line archive is at Closing Lines.