SteamWatchAthletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad: odds movement
The biggest pre-kickoff move for Athletic Bilbao vs Real Sociedad (La Liga, 1 Nov 2026) was on Athletic Bilbao in the 1X2 market: drifted from 1.82 at open to 1.97 at the close, a -4.2 percentage-point change in implied probability, with the largest single step at 11:04 UTC on 1 Nov 2026.
The totals line moved from 2.5 at open to 2.75 at the close, so open and current prices are not directly comparable.
Result
Full time: Athletic Bilbao 2-1 Real Sociedad. Athletic Bilbao closed as the 1.97 favourite with Pinnacle and won. The biggest 1X2 mover from open to close was Athletic Bilbao, which drifted from 1.82 to 1.97 and won.
Steam alerts
SteamWatch sent a steam alert on Athletic Bilbao at 1.97, 8 hours 55 minutes before kickoff, after a 4.5 percentage-point rise in implied probability. Athletic Bilbao won.
Athletic Bilbao have scored 10.7 goals fewer than their expected goals over the last 12 months (37 league matches). Real Sociedad have scored 14.4 goals more than their expected goals over the last 12 months (38 league matches). See Goals Coming Soon.
Pinnacle prices, open to close
| Market | Selection | Open | Close | Implied change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Athletic Bilbao | 1.82 | 1.97 | -4.2pp |
| 1X2 | Draw | 3.66 | 3.74 | -0.6pp |
| 1X2 | Real Sociedad | 4.15 | 3.99 | +1.0pp |
| Totals | Over 2.75 | — | 2.05 | — |
| Totals | Under 2.75 | — | 1.87 | — |
| Asian handicap | Athletic Bilbao -0.5 | 1.83 | 1.97 | -3.9pp |
| Asian handicap | Real Sociedad +0.5 | 2.00 | 1.95 | +1.3pp |
Implied change is the movement in implied probability (100 divided by the decimal price) from open to close, in percentage points. Positive means the price shortened, negative means it drifted. Prices are Pinnacle's, captured roughly every 15 minutes before kickoff.
1X2 price timeline
| When | Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 1.82 | 3.66 | 4.15 |
| 48 hours before | 2.17 | 3.68 | 3.32 |
| 24 hours before | 2.16 | 3.71 | 3.32 |
| 6 hours before | 2.01 | 3.70 | 3.88 |
| 1 hour before | 2.07 | 3.70 | 3.66 |
| Close | 1.97 | 3.74 | 3.99 |
In the final two hours before kickoff Athletic Bilbao shortened from 2.04 to 1.97, a +1.7 percentage-point change in implied probability.
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