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English Premier League · kickoff 11:30 UTC on 24 Oct 2026

Aston Villa vs Manchester City: odds movement

The biggest pre-kickoff move for Aston Villa vs Manchester City (English Premier League, 24 Oct 2026) was on Draw in the 1X2 market: drifted from 2.14 at open to 4.75 at the close, a -25.7 percentage-point change in implied probability, with the largest single step at 19:53 UTC on 11 Oct 2026.

The totals line moved from 3 at open to 3.5 at the close, so open and current prices are not directly comparable.

Result

Full time: Aston Villa 2-1 Manchester City. Manchester City closed as the 1.61 favourite with Pinnacle. Aston Villa won at a closing price of 5.10. The biggest 1X2 mover from open to close was the draw, which drifted from 2.14 to 4.75 and did not come in.

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Pinnacle prices, open to close

MarketSelectionOpenCloseImplied change
1X2Aston Villa3.805.10-6.7pp
1X2Draw2.144.75-25.7pp
1X2Manchester City1.761.61+5.3pp
TotalsOver 3.5—1.96—
TotalsUnder 3.5—1.94—
Asian handicapAston Villa +0.752.122.15-0.7pp
Asian handicapManchester City -0.751.741.81-2.2pp

1315 pre-kickoff 1X2 snapshots · first 22:43 UTC on 10 Oct 2026 · last 11:28 UTC on 24 Oct 2026

Implied change is the movement in implied probability (100 divided by the decimal price) from open to close, in percentage points. Positive means the price shortened, negative means it drifted. Prices are Pinnacle's, captured roughly every 15 minutes before kickoff.

1X2 price timeline

WhenAston VillaDrawManchester City
Open3.802.141.76
48 hours before4.754.371.68
24 hours before4.984.421.64
6 hours before5.084.441.62
1 hour before4.704.401.69
Close5.104.751.61

In the final two hours before kickoff the draw drifted from 4.50 to 4.75, a -1.2 percentage-point change in implied probability.

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