SteamWatchCrystal Palace vs Newcastle United: odds movement
The biggest pre-kickoff move for Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United (English Premier League, 25 Oct 2026) was on Draw in the 1X2 market: drifted from 2.80 at open to 3.56 at the close, a -7.6 percentage-point change in implied probability, with the largest single step at 20:09 UTC on 11 Oct 2026.
Result
Full time: Crystal Palace 0-2 Newcastle United. Crystal Palace closed as the 2.64 favourite with Pinnacle. Newcastle United won at a closing price of 2.69. The biggest 1X2 mover from open to close was the draw, which drifted from 2.80 to 3.56 and did not come in.
Steam alerts
SteamWatch sent a steam alert on Crystal Palace at 2.62, 39 minutes before kickoff, after a 4.3 percentage-point rise in implied probability. Crystal Palace did not win.
Crystal Palace have scored 15.9 goals fewer than their expected goals over the last 12 months (37 league matches). Newcastle United have scored 3.3 goals fewer than their expected goals over the last 12 months (37 league matches). See Goals Coming Soon.
Pinnacle prices, open to close
| Market | Selection | Open | Close | Implied change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Crystal Palace | 2.54 | 2.64 | -1.5pp |
| 1X2 | Draw | 2.80 | 3.56 | -7.6pp |
| 1X2 | Newcastle United | 2.54 | 2.69 | -2.2pp |
| Totals | Over 2.75 | 1.85 | 1.89 | -1.1pp |
| Totals | Under 2.75 | 1.96 | 2.01 | -1.3pp |
| Asian handicap | Crystal Palace +0 | 1.96 | 1.94 | +0.5pp |
| Asian handicap | Newcastle United -0 | 1.86 | 1.98 | -3.3pp |
Implied change is the movement in implied probability (100 divided by the decimal price) from open to close, in percentage points. Positive means the price shortened, negative means it drifted. Prices are Pinnacle's, captured roughly every 15 minutes before kickoff.
1X2 price timeline
| When | Crystal Palace | Draw | Newcastle United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 2.54 | 2.80 | 2.54 |
| 48 hours before | 3.07 | 3.67 | 2.30 |
| 24 hours before | 2.95 | 3.68 | 2.37 |
| 6 hours before | 2.88 | 3.63 | 2.44 |
| 1 hour before | 2.80 | 3.64 | 2.53 |
| Close | 2.64 | 3.56 | 2.69 |
In the final two hours before kickoff Newcastle United drifted from 2.43 to 2.69, a -4.0 percentage-point change in implied probability.
Other English Premier League matches this round
- Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City
- Arsenal vs Everton
- Coventry City vs Fulham
- Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur
- Manchester United vs Bournemouth
- Liverpool vs Brighton and Hove Albion
- Hull City vs Brentford
- Sunderland vs Leeds United