SteamWatchChelsea vs Manchester United: odds movement
The biggest pre-kickoff move for Chelsea vs Manchester United (English Premier League, 31 Oct 2026) was on Chelsea in the 1X2 market: drifted from 1.68 at open to 2.28 at the close, a -15.7 percentage-point change in implied probability, with the largest single step at 19:03 UTC on 18 Oct 2026.
The totals line moved from 3.25 at open to 3 at the close, so open and current prices are not directly comparable.
The Asian handicap line moved from -0.5 at open to -0.25 at the close.
Result
Full time: Chelsea 2-0 Manchester United. Chelsea closed as the 2.28 favourite with Pinnacle and won. The biggest 1X2 mover from open to close was Chelsea, which drifted from 1.68 to 2.28 and won.
Steam alerts
SteamWatch sent a steam alert on Manchester United at 3.13, 57 minutes before kickoff, after a 5.0 percentage-point rise in implied probability. Manchester United did not win.
Chelsea have scored 6.5 goals fewer than their expected goals over the last 12 months (37 league matches). See Goals Coming Soon.
Pinnacle prices, open to close
| Market | Selection | Open | Close | Implied change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chelsea | 1.68 | 2.28 | -15.7pp |
| 1X2 | Draw | 3.95 | 3.71 | +1.6pp |
| 1X2 | Manchester United | 2.54 | 3.15 | -7.6pp |
| Totals | Over 3 | — | 2.05 | — |
| Totals | Under 3 | — | 1.86 | — |
| Asian handicap | Chelsea -0.25 | — | 1.99 | — |
| Asian handicap | Manchester United +0.25 | — | 1.93 | — |
Implied change is the movement in implied probability (100 divided by the decimal price) from open to close, in percentage points. Positive means the price shortened, negative means it drifted. Prices are Pinnacle's, captured roughly every 15 minutes before kickoff.
1X2 price timeline
| When | Chelsea | Draw | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 1.68 | 3.95 | 2.54 |
| 48 hours before | 1.83 | 4.02 | 4.13 |
| 24 hours before | 1.85 | 3.95 | 4.15 |
| 6 hours before | 2.04 | 3.77 | 3.58 |
| 1 hour before | 2.19 | 3.73 | 3.32 |
| Close | 2.28 | 3.71 | 3.15 |
In the final two hours before kickoff Chelsea drifted from 2.11 to 2.28, a -3.5 percentage-point change in implied probability.
Other English Premier League matches this round
- Hull City vs Ipswich Town
- Manchester City vs Brighton and Hove Albion
- Bournemouth vs Leeds United
- Brentford vs Nottingham Forest
- Coventry City vs Sunderland
- Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace
- Aston Villa vs Fulham
- Liverpool vs Arsenal
- Newcastle United vs Everton