SteamWatchBarcelona vs Real Madrid: odds movement
The biggest pre-kickoff move for Barcelona vs Real Madrid (La Liga, 25 Oct 2026) was on Draw in the 1X2 market: drifted from 4.58 at open to 6.30 at the close, a -6.0 percentage-point change in implied probability, with the largest single step at 08:09 UTC on 18 Oct 2026.
The totals line moved from 3.5 at open to 4.25 at the close, so open and current prices are not directly comparable.
The Asian handicap line moved from -0.75 at open to -1 at the close.
Result
Full time: Barcelona 1-2 Real Madrid. Barcelona closed as the 1.62 favourite with Pinnacle. Real Madrid won at a closing price of 4.00. The biggest 1X2 mover from open to close was the draw, which drifted from 4.58 to 6.30 and did not come in.
Steam alerts
No SteamWatch steam alert was sent for this match.
Barcelona have scored 19.0 goals more than their expected goals over the last 12 months (38 league matches). Real Madrid have scored 7.3 goals more than their expected goals over the last 12 months (38 league matches). See Goals Coming Soon.
Pinnacle prices, open to close
| Market | Selection | Open | Close | Implied change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barcelona | 1.61 | 1.62 | -0.4pp |
| 1X2 | Draw | 4.58 | 6.30 | -6.0pp |
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 4.36 | 4.00 | +2.1pp |
| Totals | Over 4.25 | — | 1.91 | — |
| Totals | Under 4.25 | — | 2.00 | — |
| Asian handicap | Barcelona -1 | — | 1.88 | — |
| Asian handicap | Real Madrid +1 | — | 2.05 | — |
Implied change is the movement in implied probability (100 divided by the decimal price) from open to close, in percentage points. Positive means the price shortened, negative means it drifted. Prices are Pinnacle's, captured roughly every 15 minutes before kickoff.
1X2 price timeline
| When | Barcelona | Draw | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 1.61 | 4.58 | 4.36 |
| 48 hours before | 1.65 | 5.67 | 3.96 |
| 24 hours before | 1.68 | 6.00 | 3.62 |
| 6 hours before | 1.58 | 6.04 | 4.21 |
| 1 hour before | 1.59 | 6.46 | 3.99 |
| Close | 1.62 | 6.30 | 4.00 |
No 1X2 price moved by more than 1 percentage point in the final two hours before kickoff.
Other La Liga matches this round
- Alavés vs Málaga
- Rayo Vallecano vs Elche CF
- Real Racing Club de Santander vs Espanyol
- Valencia vs Villarreal
- Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruña
- Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe
- Celta Vigo vs Real Betis
- Real Sociedad vs Levante
- Sevilla vs CA Osasuna