SteamWatchAzerbaijan vs Lithuania: odds movement
The biggest pre-kickoff move for Azerbaijan vs Lithuania (UEFA Nations League, 4 Oct 2026) was on Azerbaijan in the 1X2 market: drifted from 2.32 at open to 2.86 at the close, a -8.1 percentage-point change in implied probability, with the largest single step at 11:59 UTC on 4 Oct 2026.
How the market closed
Azerbaijan closed as the 2.86 favourite with Pinnacle. The biggest 1X2 mover from open to close was Azerbaijan, which drifted from 2.32 to 2.86.
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Pinnacle prices, open to close
| Market | Selection | Open | Close | Implied change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Azerbaijan | 2.32 | 2.86 | -8.1pp |
| 1X2 | Draw | 2.86 | 2.98 | -1.4pp |
| 1X2 | Lithuania | 3.30 | 3.15 | +1.4pp |
Implied change is the movement in implied probability (100 divided by the decimal price) from open to close, in percentage points. Positive means the price shortened, negative means it drifted. Prices are Pinnacle's, captured roughly every 15 minutes before kickoff.
1X2 price timeline
| When | Azerbaijan | Draw | Lithuania |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 2.32 | 2.86 | 3.30 |
| 48 hours before | 2.34 | 2.88 | 3.50 |
| 24 hours before | 2.36 | 3.20 | 3.45 |
| 6 hours before | 2.50 | 3.10 | 3.50 |
| 1 hour before | 2.66 | 3.05 | 3.30 |
| Close | 2.86 | 2.98 | 3.15 |
In the final two hours before kickoff Azerbaijan drifted from 2.52 to 2.86, a -4.7 percentage-point change in implied probability.
Other UEFA Nations League matches this round
- Iceland vs Bulgaria
- Estonia vs Luxembourg
- Spain vs Czech Republic
- Switzerland vs Slovenia
- North Macedonia vs Scotland
- Kosovo vs Austria
- Malta vs Andorra
- Wales vs Denmark
- Greece vs Germany
- Portugal vs Norway
- Netherlands vs Serbia
- Republic of Ireland vs Israel