SteamWatchNetherlands vs Serbia: odds movement
The biggest pre-kickoff move for Netherlands vs Serbia (UEFA Nations League, 4 Oct 2026) was on Serbia +2 in the Asian handicap market: drifted from 1.83 at open to 2.12 at the close, a -7.5 percentage-point change in implied probability.
The totals line moved from 3.25 at open to 3.5 at the close, so open and current prices are not directly comparable.
How the market closed
Netherlands closed as the 1.20 favourite with Pinnacle. The biggest 1X2 mover from open to close was the draw, which drifted from 6.75 to 8.00.
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Pinnacle prices, open to close
| Market | Selection | Open | Close | Implied change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Netherlands | 1.20 | 1.20 | +0.0pp |
| 1X2 | Draw | 6.75 | 8.00 | -2.3pp |
| 1X2 | Serbia | 10.99 | 14.00 | -2.0pp |
| Totals | Over 3.5 | — | 1.93 | — |
| Totals | Under 3.5 | — | 1.93 | — |
| Asian handicap | Netherlands -2 | 1.97 | 1.79 | +5.1pp |
| Asian handicap | Serbia +2 | 1.83 | 2.12 | -7.5pp |
Implied change is the movement in implied probability (100 divided by the decimal price) from open to close, in percentage points. Positive means the price shortened, negative means it drifted. Prices are Pinnacle's, captured roughly every 15 minutes before kickoff.
1X2 price timeline
| When | Netherlands | Draw | Serbia |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 1.20 | 6.75 | 10.99 |
| 48 hours before | 1.16 | 7.94 | 14.26 |
| 24 hours before | 1.16 | 8.03 | 14.41 |
| 6 hours before | 1.13 | 9.32 | 18.14 |
| 1 hour before | 1.20 | 7.75 | 13.00 |
| Close | 1.20 | 8.00 | 14.00 |
No 1X2 price moved by more than 1 percentage point in the final two hours before kickoff.
Other UEFA Nations League matches this round
- Spain vs Czech Republic
- Switzerland vs Slovenia
- North Macedonia vs Scotland
- Azerbaijan vs Lithuania
- Kosovo vs Austria
- Malta vs Andorra
- Wales vs Denmark
- Greece vs Germany
- Portugal vs Norway
- Republic of Ireland vs Israel
- Cyprus vs Latvia
- Romania vs Sweden