SteamWatchRomania vs Sweden: odds movement
The biggest pre-kickoff move for Romania vs Sweden (UEFA Nations League, 5 Oct 2026) was on Romania in the 1X2 market: drifted from 3.20 at open to 4.80 at the close, a -10.4 percentage-point change in implied probability, with the largest single step at 21:47 UTC on 2 Oct 2026.
How the market closed
Sweden closed as the 1.83 favourite with Pinnacle. The biggest 1X2 mover from open to close was Romania, which drifted from 3.20 to 4.80.
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Pinnacle prices, open to close
| Market | Selection | Open | Close | Implied change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Romania | 3.20 | 4.80 | -10.4pp |
| 1X2 | Draw | 3.40 | 3.95 | -4.1pp |
| 1X2 | Sweden | 1.69 | 1.83 | -4.5pp |
Implied change is the movement in implied probability (100 divided by the decimal price) from open to close, in percentage points. Positive means the price shortened, negative means it drifted. Prices are Pinnacle's, captured roughly every 15 minutes before kickoff.
1X2 price timeline
| When | Romania | Draw | Sweden |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 3.20 | 3.40 | 1.69 |
| 48 hours before | 4.60 | 4.10 | 1.80 |
| 24 hours before | 4.70 | 4.10 | 1.80 |
| 6 hours before | 4.80 | 4.20 | 1.78 |
| 1 hour before | 4.60 | 4.20 | 1.81 |
| Close | 4.80 | 3.95 | 1.83 |
In the final two hours before kickoff Sweden drifted from 1.70 to 1.83, a -4.2 percentage-point change in implied probability.
Other UEFA Nations League matches this round
- Wales vs Denmark
- Greece vs Germany
- Portugal vs Norway
- Republic of Ireland vs Israel
- Cyprus vs Latvia
- Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland
- Italy vs Turkey
- France vs Belgium
- Ukraine vs Hungary
- Northern Ireland vs Georgia
- Montenegro vs Armenia
- Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands