SteamWatchItaly vs Turkey: odds movement
The biggest pre-kickoff move for Italy vs Turkey (UEFA Nations League, 5 Oct 2026) was on Over 3 in the Totals market: drifted from 1.88 at open to 2.08 at the close, a -5.1 percentage-point change in implied probability.
Result
Full time: Italy 3-1 Turkey. Italy closed as the 1.54 favourite with Pinnacle and won. The biggest 1X2 mover from open to close was Turkey, which drifted from 5.70 to 6.25 and did not win.
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Pinnacle prices, open to close
| Market | Selection | Open | Close | Implied change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Italy | 1.53 | 1.54 | -0.4pp |
| 1X2 | Draw | 4.60 | 4.50 | +0.5pp |
| 1X2 | Turkey | 5.70 | 6.25 | -1.5pp |
| Totals | Over 3 | 1.88 | 2.08 | -5.1pp |
| Totals | Under 3 | 1.93 | 1.83 | +2.8pp |
| Asian handicap | Italy -1 | 1.85 | 1.95 | -2.8pp |
| Asian handicap | Turkey +1 | 1.97 | 1.95 | +0.5pp |
Implied change is the movement in implied probability (100 divided by the decimal price) from open to close, in percentage points. Positive means the price shortened, negative means it drifted. Prices are Pinnacle's, captured roughly every 15 minutes before kickoff.
1X2 price timeline
| When | Italy | Draw | Turkey |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 1.53 | 4.60 | 5.70 |
| 48 hours before | 1.47 | 4.99 | 6.45 |
| 24 hours before | 1.47 | 5.05 | 6.34 |
| 6 hours before | 1.38 | 5.24 | 7.79 |
| 1 hour before | 1.43 | 4.93 | 7.21 |
| Close | 1.54 | 4.50 | 6.25 |
In the final two hours before kickoff Italy drifted from 1.38 to 1.54, a -7.5 percentage-point change in implied probability.
Other UEFA Nations League matches this round
- Wales vs Denmark
- Greece vs Germany
- Portugal vs Norway
- Republic of Ireland vs Israel
- Cyprus vs Latvia
- Romania vs Sweden
- France vs Belgium
- Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland
- Ukraine vs Hungary
- Northern Ireland vs Georgia
- Montenegro vs Armenia
- Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands