SteamWatchManchester United vs Aston Villa: odds movement
The biggest pre-kickoff move for Manchester United vs Aston Villa (English Premier League, 8 Nov 2026) was on Aston Villa in the 1X2 market: drifted from 1.97 at open to 3.51 at the close, a -22.3 percentage-point change in implied probability, with the largest single step at 20:34 UTC on 25 Oct 2026.
The totals line moved from 3 at open to 3.25 at the close, so open and current prices are not directly comparable.
Result
Full time: Manchester United 4-4 Aston Villa. Manchester United closed as the 2.01 favourite with Pinnacle. The match finished level, with the draw closing at 4.13. The biggest 1X2 mover from open to close was Aston Villa, which drifted from 1.97 to 3.51 and did not win.
Steam alerts
SteamWatch sent a steam alert on Manchester United at 2.01, 16 minutes before kickoff, after a 4.1 percentage-point rise in implied probability. Manchester United did not win.
Pinnacle prices, open to close
| Market | Selection | Open | Close | Implied change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Manchester United | 2.28 | 2.01 | +5.9pp |
| 1X2 | Draw | 2.50 | 4.13 | -15.8pp |
| 1X2 | Aston Villa | 1.97 | 3.51 | -22.3pp |
| Totals | Over 3.25 | — | 2.00 | — |
| Totals | Under 3.25 | — | 1.91 | — |
| Asian handicap | Manchester United -0.5 | 2.05 | 2.01 | +1.0pp |
| Asian handicap | Aston Villa +0.5 | 1.79 | 1.92 | -3.8pp |
Implied change is the movement in implied probability (100 divided by the decimal price) from open to close, in percentage points. Positive means the price shortened, negative means it drifted. Prices are Pinnacle's, captured roughly every 15 minutes before kickoff.
1X2 price timeline
| When | Manchester United | Draw | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 2.28 | 2.50 | 1.97 |
| 48 hours before | 2.22 | 3.82 | 3.15 |
| 24 hours before | 2.14 | 3.88 | 3.25 |
| 6 hours before | 2.19 | 3.85 | 3.23 |
| 1 hour before | 2.25 | 3.77 | 3.17 |
| Close | 2.01 | 4.13 | 3.51 |
In the final two hours before kickoff Manchester United shortened from 2.24 to 2.01, a +5.1 percentage-point change in implied probability.
Other English Premier League matches this round
- Everton vs Coventry City
- Leeds United vs Tottenham Hotspur
- Fulham vs Newcastle United
- Arsenal vs Hull City
- Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City
- Crystal Palace vs Liverpool
- Ipswich Town vs Bournemouth
- Sunderland vs Chelsea
- Brighton and Hove Albion vs Brentford