SteamWatchElversberg vs FSV Mainz 05: odds movement
The biggest pre-kickoff move for Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga, 30 Oct 2026) was on Elversberg in the 1X2 market: drifted from 3.32 at open to 3.92 at the close, a -4.6 percentage-point change in implied probability, with the largest single step at 19:09 UTC on 30 Oct 2026.
The Asian handicap line moved from +0.25 at open to +0.5 at the close.
Result
Full time: Elversberg 4-1 FSV Mainz 05. FSV Mainz 05 closed as the 1.92 favourite with Pinnacle. Elversberg won at a closing price of 3.92. The biggest 1X2 mover from open to close was Elversberg, which drifted from 3.32 to 3.92 and won.
Steam alerts
SteamWatch sent a steam alert on FSV Mainz 05 at 1.91, 21 minutes before kickoff, after a 6.9 percentage-point rise in implied probability. FSV Mainz 05 did not win.
FSV Mainz 05 have scored 5.1 goals fewer than their expected goals over the last 12 months (33 league matches). See Goals Coming Soon.
Pinnacle prices, open to close
| Market | Selection | Open | Close | Implied change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Elversberg | 3.32 | 3.92 | -4.6pp |
| 1X2 | Draw | 3.74 | 4.02 | -1.9pp |
| 1X2 | FSV Mainz 05 | 2.03 | 1.92 | +2.8pp |
| Totals | Over 3 | 1.81 | 1.79 | +0.6pp |
| Totals | Under 3 | 2.01 | 2.15 | -3.2pp |
| Asian handicap | Elversberg +0.5 | — | 2.01 | — |
| Asian handicap | FSV Mainz 05 -0.5 | — | 1.92 | — |
Implied change is the movement in implied probability (100 divided by the decimal price) from open to close, in percentage points. Positive means the price shortened, negative means it drifted. Prices are Pinnacle's, captured roughly every 15 minutes before kickoff.
1X2 price timeline
| When | Elversberg | Draw | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 3.32 | 3.74 | 2.03 |
| 48 hours before | 3.17 | 3.94 | 2.15 |
| 24 hours before | 3.11 | 3.91 | 2.19 |
| 6 hours before | 3.42 | 3.95 | 2.08 |
| 1 hour before | 3.60 | 3.85 | 2.05 |
| Close | 3.92 | 4.02 | 1.92 |
In the final two hours before kickoff FSV Mainz 05 shortened from 2.04 to 1.92, a +3.1 percentage-point change in implied probability.
Other Bundesliga matches this round
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- FC Schalke 04 vs RB Leipzig
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- Borussia Monchengladbach vs SC Paderborn
- Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund
- Union Berlin vs 1. FC Köln
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs Hamburger SV