SteamWatchSK Sturm Graz vs Marseille: odds movement
The biggest pre-kickoff move for SK Sturm Graz vs Marseille (Europa League, 22 Oct 2026) was on Marseille in the 1X2 market: drifted from 1.94 at open to 2.27 at the close, a -7.5 percentage-point change in implied probability, with the largest single step at 15:41 UTC on 22 Oct 2026.
The totals line moved from 2.75 at open to 3 at the close, so open and current prices are not directly comparable.
The Asian handicap line moved from +0.5 at open to +0.25 at the close.
Result
Full time: SK Sturm Graz 1-0 Marseille. Marseille closed as the 2.27 favourite with Pinnacle. SK Sturm Graz won at a closing price of 3.11. The biggest 1X2 mover from open to close was Marseille, which drifted from 1.94 to 2.27 and did not win.
Steam alerts
SteamWatch sent a steam alert on Marseille at 1.85, 5 hours 48 minutes before kickoff, after a 4.5 percentage-point rise in implied probability. Marseille did not win.
SteamWatch sent a steam alert on SK Sturm Graz at 3.06, 21 minutes before kickoff, after a 5.0 percentage-point rise in implied probability. SK Sturm Graz won.
Pinnacle prices, open to close
| Market | Selection | Open | Close | Implied change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | SK Sturm Graz | 3.65 | 3.11 | +4.8pp |
| 1X2 | Draw | 3.65 | 3.68 | -0.2pp |
| 1X2 | Marseille | 1.94 | 2.27 | -7.5pp |
| Totals | Over 3 | — | 1.93 | — |
| Totals | Under 3 | — | 1.95 | — |
| Asian handicap | SK Sturm Graz +0.25 | — | 1.93 | — |
| Asian handicap | Marseille -0.25 | — | 1.98 | — |
Implied change is the movement in implied probability (100 divided by the decimal price) from open to close, in percentage points. Positive means the price shortened, negative means it drifted. Prices are Pinnacle's, captured roughly every 15 minutes before kickoff.
1X2 price timeline
| When | SK Sturm Graz | Draw | Marseille |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 3.65 | 3.65 | 1.94 |
| 48 hours before | 3.57 | 3.66 | 2.01 |
| 24 hours before | 3.58 | 3.67 | 2.00 |
| 6 hours before | 4.11 | 3.77 | 1.90 |
| 1 hour before | 3.42 | 3.77 | 2.10 |
| Close | 3.11 | 3.68 | 2.27 |
In the final two hours before kickoff Marseille drifted from 1.85 to 2.27, a -10.0 percentage-point change in implied probability.
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