SteamWatchMarseille vs Le Havre: odds movement
The biggest pre-kickoff move for Marseille vs Le Havre (Ligue 1, 25 Oct 2026) was on Le Havre in the 1X2 market: drifted from 4.90 at open to 6.85 at the close, a -5.8 percentage-point change in implied probability, with the largest single step at 08:38 UTC on 19 Oct 2026.
The totals line moved from 3 at open to 3.25 at the close, so open and current prices are not directly comparable.
The Asian handicap line moved from -1 at open to -1.25 at the close.
Result
Full time: Marseille 4-3 Le Havre. Marseille closed as the 1.45 favourite with Pinnacle and won. The biggest 1X2 mover from open to close was Le Havre, which drifted from 4.90 to 6.85 and did not win.
Steam alerts
SteamWatch sent a steam alert on Marseille at 1.45, 8 minutes before kickoff, after a 4.0 percentage-point rise in implied probability. Marseille won.
Marseille have scored 5.9 goals more than their expected goals over the last 12 months (32 league matches). Le Havre have scored 14.7 goals fewer than their expected goals over the last 12 months (32 league matches). See Goals Coming Soon.
Pinnacle prices, open to close
| Market | Selection | Open | Close | Implied change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Marseille | 1.54 | 1.45 | +4.0pp |
| 1X2 | Draw | 4.40 | 5.07 | -3.0pp |
| 1X2 | Le Havre | 4.90 | 6.85 | -5.8pp |
| Totals | Over 3.25 | — | 2.01 | — |
| Totals | Under 3.25 | — | 1.90 | — |
| Asian handicap | Marseille -1.25 | — | 1.95 | — |
| Asian handicap | Le Havre +1.25 | — | 1.97 | — |
Implied change is the movement in implied probability (100 divided by the decimal price) from open to close, in percentage points. Positive means the price shortened, negative means it drifted. Prices are Pinnacle's, captured roughly every 15 minutes before kickoff.
1X2 price timeline
| When | Marseille | Draw | Le Havre |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 1.54 | 4.40 | 4.90 |
| 48 hours before | 1.60 | 4.74 | 5.01 |
| 24 hours before | 1.55 | 4.91 | 5.36 |
| 6 hours before | 1.50 | 4.96 | 6.17 |
| 1 hour before | 1.48 | 5.05 | 6.39 |
| Close | 1.45 | 5.07 | 6.85 |
In the final two hours before kickoff Marseille shortened from 1.49 to 1.45, a +1.9 percentage-point change in implied probability.
Other Ligue 1 matches this round
- Brest vs Nice
- RC Lens vs Paris FC
- AS Monaco vs Lille
- Rennes vs Strasbourg
- Auxerre vs Le Mans FC
- Angers vs Lorient
- Toulouse vs Troyes
- Paris Saint Germain vs Lyon