SteamWatchFSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich: odds movement
The biggest pre-kickoff move for FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern Munich (Bundesliga, 7 Nov 2026) was on FSV Mainz 05 in the 1X2 market: drifted from 6.03 at open to 10.50 at the close, a -7.1 percentage-point change in implied probability, with the largest single step at 05:56 UTC on 7 Nov 2026.
The Asian handicap line moved from +1.5 at open to +2 at the close.
Result
Full time: FSV Mainz 05 1-2 Bayern Munich. Bayern Munich closed as the 1.25 favourite with Pinnacle and won. The biggest 1X2 mover from open to close was FSV Mainz 05, which drifted from 6.03 to 10.50 and did not win.
Steam alerts
SteamWatch sent a steam alert on Bayern Munich at 1.27, 44 minutes before kickoff, after a 4.1 percentage-point rise in implied probability. Bayern Munich won.
FSV Mainz 05 have scored 5.1 goals fewer than their expected goals over the last 12 months (33 league matches). Bayern Munich have scored 20.2 goals more than their expected goals over the last 12 months (33 league matches). See Goals Coming Soon.
Pinnacle prices, open to close
| Market | Selection | Open | Close | Implied change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FSV Mainz 05 | 6.03 | 10.50 | -7.1pp |
| 1X2 | Draw | 5.71 | 7.25 | -3.7pp |
| 1X2 | Bayern Munich | 1.37 | 1.25 | +7.0pp |
| Totals | Over 4 | 1.86 | 1.96 | -2.7pp |
| Totals | Under 4 | 1.94 | 1.93 | +0.3pp |
| Asian handicap | FSV Mainz 05 +2 | — | 1.85 | — |
| Asian handicap | Bayern Munich -2 | — | 2.06 | — |
Implied change is the movement in implied probability (100 divided by the decimal price) from open to close, in percentage points. Positive means the price shortened, negative means it drifted. Prices are Pinnacle's, captured roughly every 15 minutes before kickoff.
1X2 price timeline
| When | FSV Mainz 05 | Draw | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 6.03 | 5.71 | 1.37 |
| 48 hours before | 6.96 | 6.85 | 1.34 |
| 24 hours before | 7.14 | 6.82 | 1.34 |
| 6 hours before | 8.96 | 6.83 | 1.28 |
| 1 hour before | 9.29 | 6.88 | 1.28 |
| Close | 10.50 | 7.25 | 1.25 |
In the final two hours before kickoff Bayern Munich shortened from 1.28 to 1.25, a +1.9 percentage-point change in implied probability.
Other Bundesliga matches this round
- Hamburger SV vs Borussia Monchengladbach
- RB Leipzig vs Augsburg
- Borussia Dortmund vs Elversberg
- SC Paderborn vs Eintracht Frankfurt
- VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen
- 1. FC Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen
- SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin
- TSG Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04