SteamWatchFSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: odds movement
The biggest pre-kickoff move for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen (Bundesliga, 24 Oct 2026) was on FSV Mainz 05 -0.75 in the Asian handicap market: drifted from 1.76 at open to 2.07 at the close, a -8.5 percentage-point change in implied probability.
The totals line moved from 3.25 at open to 3 at the close, so open and current prices are not directly comparable.
Result
Full time: FSV Mainz 05 2-3 Werder Bremen. FSV Mainz 05 closed as the 1.83 favourite with Pinnacle. Werder Bremen won at a closing price of 4.17. The biggest 1X2 mover from open to close was FSV Mainz 05, which drifted from 1.60 to 1.83 and did not win.
Steam alerts
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FSV Mainz 05 have scored 5.1 goals fewer than their expected goals over the last 12 months (33 league matches). Werder Bremen have scored 4.3 goals fewer than their expected goals over the last 12 months (33 league matches). See Goals Coming Soon.
Pinnacle prices, open to close
| Market | Selection | Open | Close | Implied change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FSV Mainz 05 | 1.60 | 1.83 | -7.9pp |
| 1X2 | Draw | 4.51 | 4.05 | +2.5pp |
| 1X2 | Werder Bremen | 4.54 | 4.17 | +2.0pp |
| Totals | Over 3 | — | 1.81 | — |
| Totals | Under 3 | — | 2.11 | — |
| Asian handicap | FSV Mainz 05 -0.75 | 1.76 | 2.07 | -8.5pp |
| Asian handicap | Werder Bremen +0.75 | 2.08 | 1.86 | +5.7pp |
Implied change is the movement in implied probability (100 divided by the decimal price) from open to close, in percentage points. Positive means the price shortened, negative means it drifted. Prices are Pinnacle's, captured roughly every 15 minutes before kickoff.
1X2 price timeline
| When | FSV Mainz 05 | Draw | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 1.60 | 4.51 | 4.54 |
| 48 hours before | 1.76 | 4.22 | 4.34 |
| 24 hours before | 1.76 | 4.20 | 4.36 |
| 6 hours before | 1.76 | 4.17 | 4.37 |
| 1 hour before | 1.71 | 4.19 | 4.73 |
| Close | 1.83 | 4.05 | 4.17 |
In the final two hours before kickoff FSV Mainz 05 drifted from 1.75 to 1.83, a -2.5 percentage-point change in implied probability.
Other Bundesliga matches this round
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- TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen
- SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich