SteamWatchReal Madrid vs RB Leipzig: odds movement
The biggest pre-kickoff move for Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig (Champions League, 21 Oct 2026) was on RB Leipzig in the 1X2 market: drifted from 8.23 at open to 11.25 at the close, a -3.3 percentage-point change in implied probability, with the largest single step at 10:29 UTC on 15 Oct 2026.
The totals line moved from 3.75 at open to 4.25 at the close, so open and current prices are not directly comparable.
The Asian handicap line moved from -1.75 at open to -2 at the close.
Result
Full time: Real Madrid 4-1 RB Leipzig. Real Madrid closed as the 1.24 favourite with Pinnacle and won. The biggest 1X2 mover from open to close was RB Leipzig, which drifted from 8.23 to 11.25 and did not win.
Steam alerts
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Pinnacle prices, open to close
| Market | Selection | Open | Close | Implied change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Madrid | 1.26 | 1.24 | +1.3pp |
| 1X2 | Draw | 6.26 | 7.50 | -2.6pp |
| 1X2 | RB Leipzig | 8.23 | 11.25 | -3.3pp |
| Totals | Over 4.25 | — | 1.87 | — |
| Totals | Under 4.25 | — | 2.02 | — |
| Asian handicap | Real Madrid -2 | — | 1.92 | — |
| Asian handicap | RB Leipzig +2 | — | 1.99 | — |
Implied change is the movement in implied probability (100 divided by the decimal price) from open to close, in percentage points. Positive means the price shortened, negative means it drifted. Prices are Pinnacle's, captured roughly every 15 minutes before kickoff.
1X2 price timeline
| When | Real Madrid | Draw | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 1.26 | 6.26 | 8.23 |
| 48 hours before | 1.25 | 7.21 | 9.59 |
| 24 hours before | 1.25 | 7.19 | 9.64 |
| 6 hours before | 1.24 | 7.13 | 10.07 |
| 1 hour before | 1.23 | 7.18 | 10.98 |
| Close | 1.24 | 7.50 | 11.25 |
In the final two hours before kickoff Real Madrid drifted from 1.22 to 1.24, a -1.3 percentage-point change in implied probability.
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