SteamWatchLiverpool vs Villarreal: odds movement
The biggest pre-kickoff move for Liverpool vs Villarreal (Champions League, 20 Oct 2026) was on Liverpool in the 1X2 market: drifted from 1.46 at open to 1.57 at the close, a -4.8 percentage-point change in implied probability, with the largest single step at 06:29 UTC on 15 Oct 2026.
The Asian handicap line moved from -1.25 at open to -1 at the close.
Result
Full time: Liverpool 4-3 Villarreal. Liverpool closed as the 1.57 favourite with Pinnacle and won. The biggest 1X2 mover from open to close was Liverpool, which drifted from 1.46 to 1.57 and won.
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Pinnacle prices, open to close
| Market | Selection | Open | Close | Implied change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Liverpool | 1.46 | 1.57 | -4.8pp |
| 1X2 | Draw | 4.65 | 4.55 | +0.5pp |
| 1X2 | Villarreal | 5.86 | 5.75 | +0.3pp |
| Totals | Over 3 | 1.79 | 1.93 | -4.1pp |
| Totals | Under 3 | 2.02 | 1.98 | +1.0pp |
| Asian handicap | Liverpool -1 | — | 1.94 | — |
| Asian handicap | Villarreal +1 | — | 1.98 | — |
Implied change is the movement in implied probability (100 divided by the decimal price) from open to close, in percentage points. Positive means the price shortened, negative means it drifted. Prices are Pinnacle's, captured roughly every 15 minutes before kickoff.
1X2 price timeline
| When | Liverpool | Draw | Villarreal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 1.46 | 4.65 | 5.86 |
| 48 hours before | 1.49 | 4.96 | 6.11 |
| 24 hours before | 1.55 | 4.57 | 5.76 |
| 6 hours before | 1.50 | 4.78 | 6.21 |
| 1 hour before | 1.57 | 4.50 | 5.85 |
| Close | 1.57 | 4.55 | 5.75 |
In the final two hours before kickoff Liverpool drifted from 1.51 to 1.57, a -2.5 percentage-point change in implied probability.
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