SteamWatchEstonia vs Iceland: odds movement
The biggest pre-kickoff move for Estonia vs Iceland (UEFA Nations League, 6 Oct 2026) was on Estonia in the 1X2 market: drifted from 5.50 at open to 6.80 at the close, a -3.5 percentage-point change in implied probability, with the largest single step at 18:40 UTC on 6 Oct 2026.
How the market closed
Iceland closed as the 1.63 favourite with Pinnacle. The biggest 1X2 mover from open to close was Estonia, which drifted from 5.50 to 6.80.
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Pinnacle prices, open to close
| Market | Selection | Open | Close | Implied change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Estonia | 5.50 | 6.80 | -3.5pp |
| 1X2 | Draw | 4.00 | 4.10 | -0.6pp |
| 1X2 | Iceland | 1.68 | 1.63 | +1.8pp |
Implied change is the movement in implied probability (100 divided by the decimal price) from open to close, in percentage points. Positive means the price shortened, negative means it drifted. Prices are Pinnacle's, captured roughly every 15 minutes before kickoff.
1X2 price timeline
| When | Estonia | Draw | Iceland |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 5.50 | 4.00 | 1.68 |
| 48 hours before | 6.00 | 4.10 | 1.64 |
| 24 hours before | 6.20 | 4.30 | 1.63 |
| 6 hours before | 6.20 | 4.20 | 1.65 |
| 1 hour before | 6.20 | 4.10 | 1.66 |
| Close | 6.80 | 4.10 | 1.63 |
No 1X2 price moved by more than 1 percentage point in the final two hours before kickoff.
Other UEFA Nations League matches this round
- Ukraine vs Hungary
- Northern Ireland vs Georgia
- Montenegro vs Armenia
- Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands
- Belarus vs Finland
- Croatia vs Spain
- England vs Czech Republic
- Moldova vs Slovakia
- Switzerland vs North Macedonia
- Luxembourg vs Bulgaria
- Albania vs San Marino
- Scotland vs Slovenia