SteamWatchLuxembourg vs Bulgaria: odds movement
The biggest pre-kickoff move for Luxembourg vs Bulgaria (UEFA Nations League, 6 Oct 2026) was on Luxembourg in the 1X2 market: drifted from 2.06 at open to 2.62 at the close, a -10.4 percentage-point change in implied probability, with the largest single step at 20:57 UTC on 4 Oct 2026.
How the market closed
Luxembourg closed as the 2.62 favourite with Pinnacle. The biggest 1X2 mover from open to close was Luxembourg, which drifted from 2.06 to 2.62.
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Pinnacle prices, open to close
| Market | Selection | Open | Close | Implied change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Luxembourg | 2.06 | 2.62 | -10.4pp |
| 1X2 | Draw | 3.25 | 3.10 | +1.5pp |
| 1X2 | Bulgaria | 3.90 | 3.25 | +5.1pp |
Implied change is the movement in implied probability (100 divided by the decimal price) from open to close, in percentage points. Positive means the price shortened, negative means it drifted. Prices are Pinnacle's, captured roughly every 15 minutes before kickoff.
1X2 price timeline
| When | Luxembourg | Draw | Bulgaria |
|---|---|---|---|
| Open | 2.06 | 3.25 | 3.90 |
| 48 hours before | 2.06 | 3.75 | 3.85 |
| 24 hours before | 2.20 | 3.45 | 3.75 |
| 6 hours before | 2.36 | 3.25 | 3.60 |
| 1 hour before | 2.42 | 3.15 | 3.60 |
| Close | 2.62 | 3.10 | 3.25 |
In the final two hours before kickoff Luxembourg drifted from 2.44 to 2.62, a -2.8 percentage-point change in implied probability.
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