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UEFA Nations League · kickoff 18:45 UTC on 6 Oct 2026

Croatia vs Spain: odds movement

The biggest pre-kickoff move for Croatia vs Spain (UEFA Nations League, 6 Oct 2026) was on Draw in the 1X2 market: drifted from 3.10 at open to 6.50 at the close, a -16.9 percentage-point change in implied probability, with the largest single step at 16:47 UTC on 3 Oct 2026.

Result

Full time: Croatia 1-2 Spain. Spain closed as the 1.28 favourite with Pinnacle and won. The biggest 1X2 mover from open to close was the draw, which drifted from 3.10 to 6.50 and did not come in.

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Pinnacle prices, open to close

MarketSelectionOpenCloseImplied change
1X2Croatia4.5010.30-12.5pp
1X2Draw3.106.50-16.9pp
1X2Spain1.461.28+9.6pp
TotalsOver 3.251.932.02-2.3pp
TotalsUnder 3.251.861.86+0.0pp
Asian handicapCroatia +1.51.991.98+0.3pp
Asian handicapSpain -1.51.841.91-2.0pp

499 pre-kickoff 1X2 snapshots · first 00:42 UTC on 2 Oct 2026 · last 18:44 UTC on 6 Oct 2026

Implied change is the movement in implied probability (100 divided by the decimal price) from open to close, in percentage points. Positive means the price shortened, negative means it drifted. Prices are Pinnacle's, captured roughly every 15 minutes before kickoff.

1X2 price timeline

WhenCroatiaDrawSpain
Open4.503.101.46
48 hours before9.916.361.27
24 hours before9.746.591.27
6 hours before9.595.871.30
1 hour before10.736.561.25
Close10.306.501.28

In the final two hours before kickoff the draw drifted from 6.06 to 6.50, a -1.1 percentage-point change in implied probability.

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